5 Strategies and Tips to Win on Baseball

 Five Tips and Strategies to Make a Good Bet on Baseball

Baseball season is a sports betting paradise. You can bet on 2,430 regular-season baseball games with 30 teams.

It isn't just the quantity of action that attracts bettors. The unique odds that baseball has offer make it a lucrative market for sports betting. The best way to maximize your chances of winning is to avoid common pitfalls when betting on baseball.

We offer five top tips and strategies to help you start your baseball betting season on the right track.

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Don't bet on big favorites

Other professional sports, such as the NFL or NBA have great winning percentages. In the NFL, you will find teams that are 13-3 (81.3%) or 12-4 (75%) respectively. The NBA has 70% of its best teams winning.

The NFL has ten times the number of games played by baseball, while the NBA and NHL have ten. Therefore, the NFL's best teams are more likely to lose. The MLB honors a team for winning 100 games. With a winning percentage of 61%, a team that plays 100-62 games is considered to be one of the league's top teams.

Baseball is volatile. Great starting pitchers are often able to stop the best teams. But, great teams such the Dodgers and Yankees are often moneyline favorites at -300 or more when they face inferior opponents. For that price, the favorite would need to win at most three of every four games against his opponent in order to be worth betting.

What makes betting big favorites unprofitable over the long term?

Here are some numbers that show it is not profitable long-term to place large moneyline bets on favorite teams. 2019 saw the Yankees win 103 games, while their divisional rival Blue Jays only won 67. Sometimes, the Yankees were more than 300 points favorites in their head to head meetings. Let's assume that the Yankees were on an average -250 favorite in each meeting. Given that the Yankees lost just 11-8 to the Blue Jays, $100 bettors would have lost $360 if they had placed $100 on each Yankees moneyline.

The Yankees have a better head-tohead record than the Orioles. New York has a record of 29-9 against Baltimore over the past two seasons. The majority of these games had a cost of -300. These contests are worth $66.67 if a bettors $100 on the Yankees.

Bottom line, oddsmakers realize how appealing it is to wager big favorites but they also take all of the long-term benefit away from bettors through massively increasing their odds.

Only Bet Favorites are Acceptable When Betting on the Runline

Spreads in baseball are also different because the scoring structure is different than other major sports. Spreads are not used and favorite are always -1.5 run favorites. The "juice", depending on how many favorites they have, will be adjusted accordingly.

Instead of betting on a major favorite, such as the Yankees, with odds of -3300 on the moneyline. One should instead bet their runline of 1.5. With such odds, you are likely to see their "vig", which is anywhere from -140 to +160. This is a cheaper option, but you could lose if they win exactly one run.

You should only bet favorites if you're interested in placing a bet on a runline. Underdogs are worthless if they get +1.5 runs. Bet only the moneyline on an underdog and support them in winning. The runline is useless and you will lose your insurance if your team loses one run.

Do not lock yourself in too soon

Even though baseball lines can often be found the night before a game's start, you should not rush to make a decision. Managers usually release their starting lineups only a few hours before the game. You would not feel the same way about the Angels if Mike Trout were not in the lineup. It is best to wait until a starting line-up is announced before placing your bet.

Additionally, weather forecasts are subject to change between when a line is posted and when the game starts. Also, make sure to check the umpiring crew of your game. Some umpires have significantly different strike zones.

Bullpen Statistics to Take Note

Baseball lines can be heavily affected by the matchup between the starting pitchers. The odds of Jacob deGrom facing a struggling pitching pitcher will favor the Mets. Today's baseball game is seeing starting pitchers being removed from games more frequently than ever. This makes bullpens more important to record the final outs of their teams' games. A Winning Baseball Betting Strategy